Rates have pulled back from their 2023 peak, inventory is finally growing, and sellers are negotiating. But market conditions only matter if your personal numbers work. Here is how to tell the difference.
Current data as of March 2026. Sources: Freddie Mac, Realtor.com, NAR.
30-yr fixed rate
~6.4%
Freddie Mac, Mar 2026
Median home price
$411,000
US national median
Homes with price cuts
15.5%
Feb 2026, Realtor.com
Active listing growth
+7.9% YoY
28 months in a row
Avg days on market
70 days
+4 days vs last year
Home price forecast
+2–4%
2026 NAR / Fannie Mae
More inventory, more leverage. Active listings are up 7.9% from a year ago - 28 consecutive months of growth. The average home sat on the market for 70 days in February, four days longer than last year. Sellers are waiting. That means you have room to negotiate.
Rates are off their peak, not at a floor. The 30-year fixed hit 7.04% in 2025. It's now around 6.1–6.4%. Most forecasters - NAR, Wells Fargo, Redfin - expect it to stay in the low-to-mid 6% range through 2026. A drop to 5% is not expected.
Prices are still rising, just slowly. NAR and Fannie Mae both project 2–4% home price growth in 2026. If you wait a year on a $400,000 home, that's $8,000–$16,000 more in purchase price - likely offset by only a marginal rate improvement.
These are estimates using 6.4% rate, 10% down, and ~1.2% annual taxes + insurance.
Monthly total includes principal, interest, property tax, and homeowners insurance. PMI not included. Run your exact numbers with the calculator below.
Get your exact price range →Find the profile closest to yours. The numbers change the verdict entirely.
Profile
Income $110k · Saved $60k · Target $380,000
Numbers work. Reserves intact after close. The rate isn't perfect - but it's manageable and can be refinanced if rates drop.
Check your affordabilityProfile
Income $88k · Saved $30k · Target $360,000
Wait 9–12 months or target $300k instead. Closing will wipe out your emergency fund. One unexpected expense puts you underwater.
See down payment impactProfile
Income $72k · Saved $15k · Target $320,000 + $28k debt
This isn't a market problem - it's a timing problem. Build savings and pay down debt for 12–18 months. The market will still be here.
Compare rent vs buyMost buyers waiting for rates to fall are doing the math wrong. Here's what actually happens on a $400,000 home with 20% down ($320,000 loan):
Buy now at 6.4%
$1,998/mo
Principal + interest
Wait for 5.9%
$1,893/mo
Same $320k loan
Monthly savings
$105
If rate drops 0.5%
Decision tools
Pick the question that matches where you are right now.
Is renting or buying cheaper for my situation?
Rent vs Buy Calculator 2026
When does refinancing actually pay off?
Refinance Break-Even Calculator
Should I pay extra principal each month?
Extra Mortgage Payment Calculator
How can I lower my monthly payment?
How to Lower Your Monthly Mortgage Payment
Buy now if
Your payment is under 28–30% of gross income, you have reserves left after closing, and you plan to stay 5+ years. The market is more balanced than it's been in a decade - that favors you.
Wait if
Closing would drain your emergency fund, your payment stretches above 35% of income, or life might force a move in under 3 years. Buying too early turns a good asset into a financial burden.
On rates
Rates at 6.4% are not ideal, but they are historically normal - the 50-year average is closer to 7.8%. If they drop, refinance. Don't let an imperfect rate stop you from buying a home you can genuinely afford.